La vulnerabilidad estructural de la economía ecuatoriana y su incidencia en el nivel de déficit fiscal, deuda pública y competitividad, período 2007-2017
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2019-04-03
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Universidad de Guayaquil. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Resumen
La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal analizar las variaciones del déficit fiscal, el incremento de la deuda pública y el nivel de competitividad, durante el período 2007 al 2017. Para este estudio se utilizó un enfoque cuali-cuantitativo con un alcance histórico y descriptivo. Según los resultados obtenidos en base a la recolección de datos estadísticos se pudo demostrar que existe un déficit fiscal persistente durante todo el período de estudio, también se evidencia el incremento de la deuda pública, la misma que rebasa el techo de endeudamiento del 40% en relación al PIB establecido en el art. 124 del Código Orgánico de Planificación y Finanzas, además de la disminución del nivel de competitividad. Esto se atribuye a diversos factores externos como la crisis financiera del 2008, la caída del precio del petróleo, la devaluación de la moneda de países vecinos y la apreciación del dólar, que debido a la vulnerabilidad estructural que mantiene la economía ecuatoriana y al excesivo gasto público realizado por parte del gobierno se ha generado un deterioro en la estabilidad macroeconómica del país.
The main objective of this research is to analyze the variations in the fiscal deficit, the increase in public debt and the level of competitiveness during the period 2007 to 2017. For this study, a qualitative-quantitative approach with a historical and descriptive scope was used. According to the results obtained based on the collection of statistical data it was possible to demonstrate that there is a persistent fiscal deficit during the entire study period, it also shows the increase in public debt, which exceeds the debt ceiling of 40% in relation to GDP established in article 124 of the Organic Code of Planning and Finance, in addition to the decrease in the level of competitiveness. This is attributed to various external factors such as the financial crisis of 2008, the fall in the price of oil, the devaluation of the currency of neighboring countries and the appreciation of the dollar, which due to the structural vulnerability that the Ecuadorian economy maintains and to the excessive Public spending made by the government has generated a deterioration in the country's macroeconomic stability.
The main objective of this research is to analyze the variations in the fiscal deficit, the increase in public debt and the level of competitiveness during the period 2007 to 2017. For this study, a qualitative-quantitative approach with a historical and descriptive scope was used. According to the results obtained based on the collection of statistical data it was possible to demonstrate that there is a persistent fiscal deficit during the entire study period, it also shows the increase in public debt, which exceeds the debt ceiling of 40% in relation to GDP established in article 124 of the Organic Code of Planning and Finance, in addition to the decrease in the level of competitiveness. This is attributed to various external factors such as the financial crisis of 2008, the fall in the price of oil, the devaluation of the currency of neighboring countries and the appreciation of the dollar, which due to the structural vulnerability that the Ecuadorian economy maintains and to the excessive Public spending made by the government has generated a deterioration in the country's macroeconomic stability.
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DEUDA PÚBLICA, COMPETITIVIDAD, ESTABILIDAD MACROECONÓMICA, DÉFICIT FISCAL