Estimación de daños a edificaciones y poblaciones en la ciudad de Salinas causados por un tsunami.
Fecha
2016-10-07
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Universidad de Guayaquil. Facultad de Ingeniería Industrial. Maestría en Gestión de Riesgos y Desastres.
Resumen
Con el antecedente del alto riesgo sísmico en que se encuentra ubicada el área de estudio, se planteó como objetivo determinar los daños probables a edificaciones y población en la ciudad de Salinas causados por un tsunami para un escenario extremo empleando metodologías aplicadas en escenarios de impacto similares. Dos metodologías se probaron, las funciones de fragilidad (FF), las que son funciones estocásticas empíricas que relacionan la medida de intensidad del tsunami (MIT) con la probabilidad de alcanzar un nivel de daño estimado, siendo para el caso aplicado la MIT la profundidad de inundación causada por el tsunami, ante la ausencia de datos para desarrollar curvas locales se usaron FF desarrolladas para otra localidad semejante, con ellas se estimó afectación a población y edificaciones. La segunda metodología para estimación de vulnerabilidad de los edificios consistió en construir una relación de vulnerabilidad mediante combinación lineal de factores correspondientes a características de las edificaciones, a los cuales se les dio un peso y cuyas subclases fueron también valoradas con una escala numérica, con la relación se evaluó la vulnerabilidad individual de las edificaciones, las cuales fueron previamente organizadas en una base de datos geográfica junto con los atributos. En el escenario analizado, según las FF y datos de turismo, la población afectada alcanzaría 60000 personas y las viviendas afectadas serían 2237. Según el segundo método hay 3433 edificaciones con vulnerabilidades de media a alta. Los resultados fueron los esperados pero tienen carácter preliminar ya que deben superarse las varias limitaciones identificadas.
With a history of high seismic risk in the study area, the main proposed objective was to determine the likely damage to buildings and population in the city of Salinas caused by a tsunami under an extreme scenario using applied methodologies in other similar impacted scenarios. Two methods were tested, the first was functions of fragility (FF), which are empirical stochastic functions relating the measurement of the tsunami intensity (MIT) with the probability of reaching an estimated damage level; for this case MIT was depth of flooding caused by the tsunami. Due to the absence of local data to develop the FF curves, those developed for another location considered similar were used to estimate affected population and buildings. The second methodology for estimation of vulnerability of buildings was to build a relationship of vulnerability by linear combination of relevant factors of buildings characteristics, to which a weight in the relationship was given, and whose subclasses were also assessed with a numerical scale; with the relation, the individual vulnerability of buildings was assessed; building data attributes were previously organized in a geographical database. In the scenario analyzed, according to the FF and tourism data, the affected population would reach 60,000 people and affected households would be 2237. According to the second method there are 3433 buildings with medium to high vulnerabilities. The results were as expected, but they are preliminary as the various identified constraints must be overcome.
With a history of high seismic risk in the study area, the main proposed objective was to determine the likely damage to buildings and population in the city of Salinas caused by a tsunami under an extreme scenario using applied methodologies in other similar impacted scenarios. Two methods were tested, the first was functions of fragility (FF), which are empirical stochastic functions relating the measurement of the tsunami intensity (MIT) with the probability of reaching an estimated damage level; for this case MIT was depth of flooding caused by the tsunami. Due to the absence of local data to develop the FF curves, those developed for another location considered similar were used to estimate affected population and buildings. The second methodology for estimation of vulnerability of buildings was to build a relationship of vulnerability by linear combination of relevant factors of buildings characteristics, to which a weight in the relationship was given, and whose subclasses were also assessed with a numerical scale; with the relation, the individual vulnerability of buildings was assessed; building data attributes were previously organized in a geographical database. In the scenario analyzed, according to the FF and tourism data, the affected population would reach 60,000 people and affected households would be 2237. According to the second method there are 3433 buildings with medium to high vulnerabilities. The results were as expected, but they are preliminary as the various identified constraints must be overcome.
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Palabras clave
GESTIÓN DE RIESGOS Y DESASTRES, RIESGOS SÍSMICOS, INUNDACIÓN, TSUNAMI