Análisis de los factores que afecta al índice de confianza del consumodor de la ciudad de Guayaquil provincia Guayas período 2011-2019
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2021-03
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Universidad de Guayaquil. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Resumen
El estudio analiza cómo cambia el optimismo de los consumidores por medio de la incidencia del desempleo, salario real, impuesto a los consumos especiales e impuesto al valor agregado, los cuales influyen en los niveles bajos del índice de confianza del consumidor en Guayaquil 2011-2019. Para llegar a este objetivo, se hace referencia de las distintas posturas económicas como la teoría del consumidor, economía de los impuestos, economía del comportamiento entre otras. Por ello, para la obtención de los resultados se realizó un enfoque documental debido que los datos trimestrales del periodo observado se obtuvieron de fuentes secundarias: Banco Central del Ecuador, Servicio de Rentas Internas e Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos. La investigación concluyó que el desempleo, salario real e ICE son significativas para las variaciones del ICC, también se procedió a indicar que la variable IVA era redundante para el modelo. Además, a través de un análisis de la función de estimación, se puede afirmar que un incremento en una cantidad de las tres variables independientes o una de ellas inciden en los niveles bajos del ICC. Ya que el desempleo es una de las que más incide en la variación del ICC, se propone estimular el aumento del empleo y mejorar los niveles del salario real.
The study analyzes how consumer optimism varies through the incidence of unemployment, real wages, consumption tax and value added tax, which influences the low levels of the consumer confidence index in Guayaquil 2011-2019. To achieve this objective, reference is made to different economic positions like the theory of the consumer, tax economics, behavioral economics, among others. Therefore, a documentary approach was used to obtain the results, since the quarterly data for the observed period were obtained from secondary sources: The Central Bank of Ecuador, the Internal Revenue Service and the National Institute of Statistics and Census. The research concluded that unemployment, real wage and the SCT are significant for the variations of the CCI and proceeded to indicate that the VAT variable was redundant for the model. Furthermore, through the analysis of the estimation function, it can be affirmed that the increase in a quantity of the three independent variables or of one of them coincides with the low levels of the CCI. Since unemployment is one of the variables that most affect the variation of the CCI, it is proposed to stimulate the increase in employment and improve the levels of real wages.
The study analyzes how consumer optimism varies through the incidence of unemployment, real wages, consumption tax and value added tax, which influences the low levels of the consumer confidence index in Guayaquil 2011-2019. To achieve this objective, reference is made to different economic positions like the theory of the consumer, tax economics, behavioral economics, among others. Therefore, a documentary approach was used to obtain the results, since the quarterly data for the observed period were obtained from secondary sources: The Central Bank of Ecuador, the Internal Revenue Service and the National Institute of Statistics and Census. The research concluded that unemployment, real wage and the SCT are significant for the variations of the CCI and proceeded to indicate that the VAT variable was redundant for the model. Furthermore, through the analysis of the estimation function, it can be affirmed that the increase in a quantity of the three independent variables or of one of them coincides with the low levels of the CCI. Since unemployment is one of the variables that most affect the variation of the CCI, it is proposed to stimulate the increase in employment and improve the levels of real wages.
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CONSUMIDOR, DESEMPLEO, ICE, SALARIO REAL