La devaluación real del dólar y su incidencia en el comercio exterior ecuatoriano.
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Fecha
2011
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Universidad de Guayaquil Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Resumen
El principal temor en una economía dolarizada es la pérdida de competitividad-precio de las exportaciones porque se debe competir con otras economías que pueden devaluar y ofrecer mejores precios en el mercado internacional, Adicionalmente, con la dolarización la producción local en muchos casos puede ser reemplazada por bienes importados al existir similares productos ofrecidos por otros países a precios más bajos a los que se comercializa en el mercado local.
Bajo este contexto, amerita analizar cómo el tipo de cambio real del dólar influye en el desenvolvimiento de comercio exterior. Para el efecto, la presente investigación abarca el periodo 2000-2010 y se la desarrolla en 3 capít
En el primer capítulo se hace referencia al marco teórico en torno al tipo de cambio, en donde se menciona en forma breve el tipo de devaluaciones adoptadas en el Ecuador en el periodo de la vigencia del sucre. Después se analizara tanto índice tipo de cambio real efectivo como el bilateral y qué aristas permiten variaciones de los mismos: se analiza los principales socios comerciales del país y las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio real en el periodo de estudio. Además, se compara las devaluaciones del dólar con respecto a las principales divisas tales como: el euro, el yen, el yuan, el peso colombiano, el sol peruano y la devaluación real del dólar en el Ecuador.
En el segundo capítulo, partiendo de la información obtenida del capítulo precedente, se analizará la incidencia de las devaluaciones reales del dólar en el comercio exterior ecuatoriano, analizando primero las exportaciones con los principales socios comerciales como son: Estados Unidos, Chile, Colombia, Perú, Venezuela, Italia y España. De igual manera, se realizará un análisis comparativo de las devaluaciones reales del dólar con el comportamiento de las importaciones que el Ecuador realiza con los países con los cuales mantiene mayor intercambio comercial, tales como: Estados Unidos, Chile, Colombia, Perú y Venezuela, para luego analizar el, impacto a nivel de la Balanza Comercial
The main fear in a dollarized economy is the loss of price competitiveness in exports because it must compete with other economies that can devalue and better prices in the international market, Additionally, dollarization local production in many cases be replaced for imported goods to be similar products offered by other countries at lower prices than it sells in the local market. In this context, deserves analyze how the real exchange rate of the dollar affects the development of foreign trade. For this purpose, this research covers the period 2000-2010 and is developed in 3 chapters. The first chapter refers to the theoretical framework around exchange, where mentioned briefly the type of devaluation adopted in Ecuador in the period of the validity of the sucre. Then analyze both real exchange rate effective as bilateral and edges which allow variations thereof: the main trading partners and fluctuations in the real exchange rate in the period of study is analyzed. In addition, the devaluation of the dollar compared against major currencies such as the euro, the yen, the yuan, the Colombian peso, the Peruvian sol and the devaluation of the dollar in Ecuador. In the second chapter, based on the information obtained from the previous chapter, the impact of the real devaluation of the dollar in Ecuador's foreign trade will be discussed by analyzing first exports with major trading partners such as: United States, Chile, Colombia, Peru , Venezuela, Italy and Spain. Similarly, a comparative analysis of the real devaluation of the dollar with the trend in imports that Ecuador made with countries with which it has major business, such as exchange will take place: United States, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, then analyze, impact at the Trade Balance
The main fear in a dollarized economy is the loss of price competitiveness in exports because it must compete with other economies that can devalue and better prices in the international market, Additionally, dollarization local production in many cases be replaced for imported goods to be similar products offered by other countries at lower prices than it sells in the local market. In this context, deserves analyze how the real exchange rate of the dollar affects the development of foreign trade. For this purpose, this research covers the period 2000-2010 and is developed in 3 chapters. The first chapter refers to the theoretical framework around exchange, where mentioned briefly the type of devaluation adopted in Ecuador in the period of the validity of the sucre. Then analyze both real exchange rate effective as bilateral and edges which allow variations thereof: the main trading partners and fluctuations in the real exchange rate in the period of study is analyzed. In addition, the devaluation of the dollar compared against major currencies such as the euro, the yen, the yuan, the Colombian peso, the Peruvian sol and the devaluation of the dollar in Ecuador. In the second chapter, based on the information obtained from the previous chapter, the impact of the real devaluation of the dollar in Ecuador's foreign trade will be discussed by analyzing first exports with major trading partners such as: United States, Chile, Colombia, Peru , Venezuela, Italy and Spain. Similarly, a comparative analysis of the real devaluation of the dollar with the trend in imports that Ecuador made with countries with which it has major business, such as exchange will take place: United States, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, then analyze, impact at the Trade Balance
Descripción
Dolarización
Palabras clave
DEVALUACIÓN REAL DEL DÓLAR, COMERCIO EXTERIOR, EXPORTACIONES, BALANZA COMERCIAL