Modelamiento de nicho ecológico del Guacamayo Verde Mayor (ARA AMBIGUUS GUAYAQUILENSIS CHAPMAN, 1925): implicaciones para su conservación
Fecha
2016
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Universidad de Guayaquil
Resumen
Las poblaciones de esta subespecie están declinando rápidamente, debido a la fragmentación y deforestación de los bosques, para expansión de la frontera urbana y agrícola, así como al tráfico ilegal. El objetivo de esta investigación fue desarrollar modelos predictivos de distribución potencial del guacamayo verde mayor (Ara ambiguus guayaquilensis) en la cordillera Chongón Colonche, que permitan desarrollar lineamientos preliminares para su conservación. Se recopiló 44 registros georreferenciados de la especie, desde bases de datos de libre acceso como GBIF y Ebird, desde estudios de análisis de vacíos, muestreo de poblaciones del papagayo de Guayaquil en Chongón Colonche y de información de la Dirección de Medio Ambiente del Gobierno Provincial del Guayas. La distribución potencial y actual de la especie se modeló mediante el método de Máxima Entropía, con el software Maxent 3.3.3. Seleccionamos 7 variables bioclimáticas de las 19 variables de Worldclim, en base a las variables que aportaron la mayor contribución al modelo mediante el test de Jacknife y correlación de Pearson. Para la evaluación de los modelos se aplicó el análisis del área bajo la curva (Curva ROC). Se determinó en 240.800 ha la superficie del nicho realizado. Realizamos un análisis de omisiones de conservación de la especie comparando la distribución modelada de la especie y límites geográficos de sitios bajo algún régimen de conservación, y se definió que solo el 25,39% de la distribución potencial se encuentra conservada. Además se generó una propuesta preliminar de nuevos sitios para muestreo de poblaciones, sitios prioritarios para la declaratoria de áreas de conservación y para reintroducción de la especie.
The populations of this subspecie are declining rapidly due to fragmentation and deforestation of forests for expansion of urban and agricultural frontier and illegal trafficking. The objective of this research was to develop predictive models of potential distribution of the great green macaw (Ara ambiguus guayaquilensis) in the range Chongón Colonche, in order to develop preliminary guidelines for conservation. 44 georeferenced records of the species was collected from databases freely available as GBIF and eBird, from studios gap analysis, sampling populations of parrotfish Guayaquil in Chongón Colonche and information from the Department of Environment of the Provincial Government Guayas. The potential and current distribution of the species was modeled by the method of Maximum Entropy, with Maxent 3.3.3 software. 7 bioclimatic variables Worldclim 19 variables were selected, based on the variables that contributed the largest contribution to the model by Jacknife test and Pearson correlation. For the evaluation of the models we apply the analysis of the area under the curve (ROC curve). 240800 was determined in the surface has realized niche. I conduct an analysis of omissions conservation of the species by comparing the modeled distribution of the species and geographical boundaries of sites under some form of conservation, and it was determined that only 25.39% of the potential distribution is preserved. In addition I generated a preliminary proposal for new sites for sampling populations, priority sites for the declaration of conservation areas and species reintroduction
The populations of this subspecie are declining rapidly due to fragmentation and deforestation of forests for expansion of urban and agricultural frontier and illegal trafficking. The objective of this research was to develop predictive models of potential distribution of the great green macaw (Ara ambiguus guayaquilensis) in the range Chongón Colonche, in order to develop preliminary guidelines for conservation. 44 georeferenced records of the species was collected from databases freely available as GBIF and eBird, from studios gap analysis, sampling populations of parrotfish Guayaquil in Chongón Colonche and information from the Department of Environment of the Provincial Government Guayas. The potential and current distribution of the species was modeled by the method of Maximum Entropy, with Maxent 3.3.3 software. 7 bioclimatic variables Worldclim 19 variables were selected, based on the variables that contributed the largest contribution to the model by Jacknife test and Pearson correlation. For the evaluation of the models we apply the analysis of the area under the curve (ROC curve). 240800 was determined in the surface has realized niche. I conduct an analysis of omissions conservation of the species by comparing the modeled distribution of the species and geographical boundaries of sites under some form of conservation, and it was determined that only 25.39% of the potential distribution is preserved. In addition I generated a preliminary proposal for new sites for sampling populations, priority sites for the declaration of conservation areas and species reintroduction
Descripción
Palabras clave
Especie en peligro de extinción, Conservación de la naturaleza, Reintroducción