El COVID 19 y su impacto en el comercio internacional durante el periodo 2020-2021: caso petróleo
Fecha
2023-08
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Universidad de Guayaquil: Facultad de Ciencias Administrativas
Resumen
La tesis se enfoca en analizar el impacto del COVID-19 en la variación de los precios del petróleo y su influencia en la comercialización internacional. Se utilizó un enfoque cuantitativo y cualitativo para comparar cifras en diferentes períodos de tiempo y analizar los cambios ocurridos durante la pandemia en el comercio exterior del sector petrolero. Los principales destinos de exportación del petróleo son China, Estados Unidos, Chile y Panamá, aunque hay otros países con menor demanda. Durante la pandemia, China paralizó las exportaciones, pero actualmente es el principal comprador del crudo ecuatoriano, lo que indica una recuperación favorable del sector petrolero de la crisis sanitaria. Los factores que más afectaron las variaciones en el precio del petróleo durante el año 2021 fueron la crisis económica mundial y el exceso de oferta en el sector petrolero. Se confirmó mediante estadísticas del Banco Central del Ecuador que los precios promedio por barril de petróleo decrecieron durante el 2020, pero en el 2022 se obtuvo un crecimiento significativo en comparación con los años anteriores. Los resultados indican que los ingresos del petróleo han aumentado después de la pandemia y que los conflictos bélicos entre Rusia y Ucrania han influido en la demanda del crudo. Se concluye que el sector petrolero ha logrado recuperarse de la crisis sanitaria y que los presupuestos del estado tienen datos irreales en cuanto a las proyecciones del precio del petróleo y su déficit.
The thesis focuses on analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on the variation of oil prices and its influence on international trade. A quantitative and qualitative approach was used to compare figures in different time periods and analyze the changes that occurred during the pandemic in the external trade of the oil sector. The main export destinations for oil are China, the United States, Chile, and Panama, although there are other countries with lower demand. During the pandemic, China halted exports, but it is currently the main buyer of Ecuadorian crude, indicating a favorable recovery of the oil sector from the health crisis. The factors that most affected the variations in oil prices during 2021 were the global economic crisis and the excess supply in the oil sector. It was confirmed through statistics from the Central Bank of Ecuador that average oil prices per barrel decreased during 2020, but there was significant growth in 2022 compared to previous years. The results indicate that oil revenues have increased after the pandemic and that the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine have influenced crude demand. It is concluded that the oil sector has managed to recover from the health crisis, and state budgets have unrealistic data regarding oil price projections and deficits.
The thesis focuses on analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on the variation of oil prices and its influence on international trade. A quantitative and qualitative approach was used to compare figures in different time periods and analyze the changes that occurred during the pandemic in the external trade of the oil sector. The main export destinations for oil are China, the United States, Chile, and Panama, although there are other countries with lower demand. During the pandemic, China halted exports, but it is currently the main buyer of Ecuadorian crude, indicating a favorable recovery of the oil sector from the health crisis. The factors that most affected the variations in oil prices during 2021 were the global economic crisis and the excess supply in the oil sector. It was confirmed through statistics from the Central Bank of Ecuador that average oil prices per barrel decreased during 2020, but there was significant growth in 2022 compared to previous years. The results indicate that oil revenues have increased after the pandemic and that the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine have influenced crude demand. It is concluded that the oil sector has managed to recover from the health crisis, and state budgets have unrealistic data regarding oil price projections and deficits.
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Palabras clave
COVID-19, PRECIOS DEL PETRÓLEO, COMERCIALIZACIÓN INTERNACIONAL