El incremento del impuesto a los consumos especiales caso: cerveza nacional y su efecto en las ventas en el período 2010-2015
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2016-09
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Universidad de Guayaquil Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Resumen
El presente documento identifica el impacto en la decisión de consumir cervezas
nacionales cuando se dan variaciones en el precio de venta, motivadas por reformas
tributarias sobre el impuesto a los consumos especiales (ICE) por parte del Gobierno. Se
utiliza información de los años 2010 a 2015, para efectuar la medición de los cambios en el
consumo de corto plazo. Se estiman, mediante métodos estadísticos sobre datos que
provienen de encuestas privadas, los coeficientes que reflejen cuánto se contrae la demanda
de la cerveza, cuando se da un incremento en su precio de venta. Estos coeficientes son
conocidos como coeficientes de elasticidad precio de la demanda (EPD).
Los resultados indican que en promedio, los consumidores no disminuyen de manera
importante el consumo de cerveza ante cambios en los precios. Sin embargo, al analizar a los
consumidores por estratos, se determina que los estratos socioeconómicos bajos tienen
demandas sensibles y son los que más se afectan ante incrementos por un impuesto selectivo
como el ICE, por lo que se establece propuestas de aplicación discriminatoria del impuesto.
La principal novedad científica es que los impactos que se calculan en el documento, se
plantean sobre la base de que cada individuo considera su consumo por sesiones es decir,
proyecta su decisión por cada “ocasión de consumo”. Por lo tanto, se mide el impacto
considerando más información sobre la forma en que decide el consumidor.
This document identifies the impact on the decision to consume domestic beers when variations occur in the selling price, caused by tax reforms on the tax on special consumption (ICE) by the Government. Information years 2010 to 2015 are used, for measurement of changes in short-term consumption. They are estimated by statistical methods on data from private surveys, the coefficients that reflect how the demand for beer contracts, when an increase occurs in the selling price. These coefficients are known as coefficients of price elasticity of demand (EPD). The results indicate that on average, consumers do not decrease significantly beer consumption to changes in prices. However, when analyzing consumers by strata, it is determined that low socioeconomic strata have sensitive demands and are those that affect more to increase by a selective tax such as ICE, making proposals discriminatory application of the tax is established. The main scientific novelty is that the impacts are calculated in the document, they are raised on the basis that each individual considers consumption by sessions, therefore projects its decision for each "drinking occasion". Consequently, considering the impact more information on how the consumer decides it is measured.
This document identifies the impact on the decision to consume domestic beers when variations occur in the selling price, caused by tax reforms on the tax on special consumption (ICE) by the Government. Information years 2010 to 2015 are used, for measurement of changes in short-term consumption. They are estimated by statistical methods on data from private surveys, the coefficients that reflect how the demand for beer contracts, when an increase occurs in the selling price. These coefficients are known as coefficients of price elasticity of demand (EPD). The results indicate that on average, consumers do not decrease significantly beer consumption to changes in prices. However, when analyzing consumers by strata, it is determined that low socioeconomic strata have sensitive demands and are those that affect more to increase by a selective tax such as ICE, making proposals discriminatory application of the tax is established. The main scientific novelty is that the impacts are calculated in the document, they are raised on the basis that each individual considers consumption by sessions, therefore projects its decision for each "drinking occasion". Consequently, considering the impact more information on how the consumer decides it is measured.
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IMPUESTOS, DEMANDA INELÁSTICA, CERVEZA NACIONAL