Análisis de los efectos de la Inseguridad en la Inversión Extranjera Directa de Ecuador, periodo 2010-2017
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2018-09-04
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Universidad de Guayaquil. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
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La Inversión Extranjera Directa es una actividad económica relevante a nivel mundial, que contribuye al crecimiento económico de un país. El estudio reconoce que un ambiente de violencia e inseguridad conlleva a la renuencia de empresarios extranjeros para invertir en el sector empresarial nacional. A partir de ahí, la investigación analiza la relación estadística entre la Inversión Extranjera Directa de Ecuador y la Tasa de Homicidios (proxy de Inseguridad). La metodología utilizada se basa en el análisis de regresión, con datos de series de tiempo que corresponden a observaciones anuales a nivel nacional. Como resultado del estudio, se concluye que las series en referencia están cointegradas únicamente al 90% de nivel de confianza, lo que significa que existe una relación a lo largo del tiempo. Asimismo, se concluye que los valores de años pasados (2013-2016) de la Tasa de Homicidios permiten predecir los cambios de la IED actual (2017).
Foreign Direct Investment is an important economic activity worldwide, because it contributes to the economic growth of a country. The study recognizes that an environment of violence and insecurity leads to the reluctance of foreign entrepreneurs to invest in the national business sector. From there, the research analyzes the statistical relationship between Ecuador's Direct Foreign Investment and the Homicide Rate (proxy for Insecurity). The methodology used is based on regression analysis, with data from time series that correspond to annual observations at the national level. As a result of the study, it is concluded that the series in reference are cointegrated only at 90% confidence level, which means that there is a relationship over time. Likewise, it is concluded that the values of past years (2013-2016) for the Homicide Rate allows predicting the changes of the current FDI (2017).
Foreign Direct Investment is an important economic activity worldwide, because it contributes to the economic growth of a country. The study recognizes that an environment of violence and insecurity leads to the reluctance of foreign entrepreneurs to invest in the national business sector. From there, the research analyzes the statistical relationship between Ecuador's Direct Foreign Investment and the Homicide Rate (proxy for Insecurity). The methodology used is based on regression analysis, with data from time series that correspond to annual observations at the national level. As a result of the study, it is concluded that the series in reference are cointegrated only at 90% confidence level, which means that there is a relationship over time. Likewise, it is concluded that the values of past years (2013-2016) for the Homicide Rate allows predicting the changes of the current FDI (2017).
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INVERSIÓN EXTRANJERA DIRECTA, INSEGURIDAD, SERIES DE TIEMPO