Análisis de la deuda externa pública consolidada del gobierno central, periodo 2007 – 2017; caso Ecuador
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2018
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Universidad de Guayaquil Facultad de Ciencias Administrativas
Resumen
La deuda pública es un instrumento de política económica que ayuda a atenuar shocks temporales, tanto internos como externos, ayuda a restringuir variaciones en el consumo (público y privado) y en los impuestos, etc. Por lo tanto, es un tema muy sensible y con criterios muy opuestos.
La implementación de una metodología con enfoque cuantitativo, con alcance drescriptivo y con un diseño no experimental con longitudinal de tendencias. Además de una metodología económica normativa y positiva fue clave para obtener datos fidedignos y confiables para determinar el destino de los flujos de dinero provenientes por apalancamientos financieros externos por parte del Gobierno Central.
La deuda pública externa pasó de USD 10.632,70 millones a USD 25.679,30 millones en el periodo 2007-2016, un crecimiento de 2,42 veces. La inversión total durante los 10 años fue de USD 125.744,22 millones, inversión que fue destinada en mayor proporción al de Sectores Estratégicos, el 33,78% (USD 42.480.000 millones), respectivamente.
El coeficiente promedio de la deuda pública externa con relación al PIB, es de 16,25%, casi a la mitad de los coeficientes estándar sugeridos por los Organismos Internacionales, Multilaterales y, por los pensadores económicos, que oscilan entre el 25 al 50%. Por lo que, los datos demuestra que no existe alto riesgo de vulnerabilidad de la deuda pública externa, aunque para evitar futuras perturbaciones en la estabilidad económica ecuatoriana se debe contar con un plan de sostenibilidad fiscal a largo plazo.
Public debt is an instrument of economic policy that helps mitigate temporary shocks, both internal and external, helps to restrict variations in consumption (public and private) and taxes, etc. Therefore, it is a very sensitive issue and with very opposite criteria. The implementation of a methodology with a quantitative approach, with a descriptive scope and with a non-experimental design with longitudinal tendencies. In addition to a normative and positive economic methodology, it was key to obtain reliable and reliable data to determine the destination of the cash flows coming from external financial leverages by the Central Government. The external public debt went from USD 10,632.70 million to USD 25,679.30 million in the period 2007-2016, an increase of 2.42 times. The total investment during the 10 years was of USD 125,744.22 million, investment that was destined in greater proportion to that of Strategic Sectors, 33.78% (USD 42,480,000 million), respectively. The average coefficient of external public debt in relation to GDP is 16.25%, almost half of the standard coefficients suggested by International, Multilateral Organizations and, by economic thinkers, ranging from 25 to 50%. Therefore, the data shows that there is no high risk of vulnerability of the external public debt, although to avoid future disturbances in the Ecuadorian economic stability, a long-term fiscal sustainability plan must be in place.
Public debt is an instrument of economic policy that helps mitigate temporary shocks, both internal and external, helps to restrict variations in consumption (public and private) and taxes, etc. Therefore, it is a very sensitive issue and with very opposite criteria. The implementation of a methodology with a quantitative approach, with a descriptive scope and with a non-experimental design with longitudinal tendencies. In addition to a normative and positive economic methodology, it was key to obtain reliable and reliable data to determine the destination of the cash flows coming from external financial leverages by the Central Government. The external public debt went from USD 10,632.70 million to USD 25,679.30 million in the period 2007-2016, an increase of 2.42 times. The total investment during the 10 years was of USD 125,744.22 million, investment that was destined in greater proportion to that of Strategic Sectors, 33.78% (USD 42,480,000 million), respectively. The average coefficient of external public debt in relation to GDP is 16.25%, almost half of the standard coefficients suggested by International, Multilateral Organizations and, by economic thinkers, ranging from 25 to 50%. Therefore, the data shows that there is no high risk of vulnerability of the external public debt, although to avoid future disturbances in the Ecuadorian economic stability, a long-term fiscal sustainability plan must be in place.
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DEUDA PÚBLICA EXTERNA, COEFICIENTE DEUDA PÚBLICA EXTERNA/PIB, INVERSIÓN PÚBLICA, NIVEL CONFORTABLE DE DEUDA PÚBLICA