Estudio de comportamiento migratorio histórico rural-urbano en el Ecuador años 1950-2018 y proyecciones al 2050
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2019-04
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Universidad de Guayaquil. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
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En esta tesis se analiza la evolución de la distribución de la población ecuatoriana, desde el año 1950, proyectado al año 2050. Se observa su evolución en la suma de sus principales componentes por rangos de edad, así como urbana y rural. Se analiza además los efectos que sobre la estructura demográfica ha tenido avances como la reducción de la mortalidad infantil, el incremento de la esperanza de vida al nacer, la disminución sistemática de la tasa de natalidad, así como los efectos provocados por el fenómeno migratorio. Se hacen referencias a las causas y efectos que la migración campo ciudad genera, tanto en el campo como en la ciudad. Conforme la estructura demográfica cambia, envejece, nuevos problemas afloran en materia de política económica y social; así como también, problemas otrora prioritarios, van cediendo en su importancia conforme la realidad se transforma, el peso relativo de los niños se reduce y el de los viejos aumenta. Las políticas sociales requieren ser reformuladas en términos de una realidad cambiante. El crecimiento acelerado de la población urbana y el envejecimiento prematuro de la población rural, crea nuevos escenarios en los requerimientos de inversión para dar cabida a una creciente población productivamente activa
This thesis analyzes the evolution of the distribution of the Ecuadorian population, from the year 1950, projected to the year 2050. Its evolution is observed in the sum of its main components by age, as well as urban and rural ranges. The effects on the demographic structure have also been analyzed, such as the reduction of infant mortality, the increase in life expectancy at birth, the systematic decrease in the birth rate, as well as the effects caused by the migratory phenomenon. References are made to the causes and effects that the migration of the city generates, both in the countryside and in the city. As the demographic structure changes, it ages, new problems emerge in terms of economic and social policy; as well as, once priority problems, they give way to their importance as reality transforms, the relative weight of the children is reduced and that of the old increases. Social policies need to be reformulated in terms of a changing reality. The accelerated growth of the urban population and the premature aging of the rural population creates new scenarios in the investment requirements to accommodate a growing productively active population
This thesis analyzes the evolution of the distribution of the Ecuadorian population, from the year 1950, projected to the year 2050. Its evolution is observed in the sum of its main components by age, as well as urban and rural ranges. The effects on the demographic structure have also been analyzed, such as the reduction of infant mortality, the increase in life expectancy at birth, the systematic decrease in the birth rate, as well as the effects caused by the migratory phenomenon. References are made to the causes and effects that the migration of the city generates, both in the countryside and in the city. As the demographic structure changes, it ages, new problems emerge in terms of economic and social policy; as well as, once priority problems, they give way to their importance as reality transforms, the relative weight of the children is reduced and that of the old increases. Social policies need to be reformulated in terms of a changing reality. The accelerated growth of the urban population and the premature aging of the rural population creates new scenarios in the investment requirements to accommodate a growing productively active population
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TASA NATALIDAD, TASA BRUTA DE MORTALIDAD, CRECIMIENTO DEMOGRÁFICO, ESPERANZA DE VIDA A NACER