Deuda del Ecuador: Su efectos sobre el presente y futuro de la economía 2008-2018
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2019-09-11
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Universidad de Guayaquil. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Resumen
El trabajo de investigación denominado “Deuda del Ecuador: sus efectos sobre el presente y futuro de la economía. 2008-2018”, fue elaborado observando la evolución de las cifras de ingresos y gastos del gobierno central no financiero; cifras publicadas por el Banco Central del Ecuador y el Ministerio de Finanzas, asi como por el Banco Mundial, el Banco Interamericano de desarrollo, entre otras entidades públicas y privadas. El mismo tiene por objetivo, observar el proceso de endeudamiento del gobierno central, mismo que comienza a hacerse significativo ya desde 2011; incidiendo profundamente en la estructura financiera del gobierno nacional, limitando su operatividad como interventor en la demanda agregada del país; sumando así a la profundización de una crisis que se prolonga hacia el futuro; como efecto del agresivo aumento de la deuda. Es necesario mencionar que en el año 2017 el país sobrepaso el límite de endeudamiento legalmente establecido, en razón a lo insostenible de un ritmo de intervención estatal en la economía, sostenido por un crecimiento en el gasto y en la inversión pública, crecimiento dado a un ritmo ún más acelerado que el mostrado por el PIB, así como, por las exportaciones, cuyo principal impulsador fue el incremento en los precios internacionales del petróleo, sin precedentes alguno, no solo por los niveles alcanzados sino además, por lo dilatado del tiempo que duró tal situación. Se utilizó el análisis correlacional de la evolución de las cuentas más significativas que engloban al presupuesto general del estado, así como a las determinantes de su estructura y equilibrio
The research work called “ Debt of Ecuador: its effects on the present and future of the economy 2008-2018”. It was prepared observing the evolution of the figures of income and expenses of the non-financial central government; figures published by the Central Bank of Ecuador and the Ministry of Finance, as well as by the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, among other public and private entities. Its objective is to observe the process of indebtedness of the central government, which begins to become significant since 2011; deeply influencing the financial structure of the national government, limiting its operation as an auditor in the aggregate demand of the country; thus adding to the deepening of a crisis that extends into the future; as an effect of aggressive and little debt cease. It is necessary to mention that in 2017 the country exceeded the limit of indebtedness legally established, due to the unsustainable pace of state intervention in the economy, sustained by a growth in spending and public investment, growth given to a a faster pace than that shown by PIB, as well as exports, whose main driver was an increase in international oil prices, unprecedented, not only because of the levels reached but also because of the length of time it lasted such situation. It is based on the correlational analysis of the evolution of the most significant accounts that encompass the general state budget, as well as the determinants of its structure and balance
The research work called “ Debt of Ecuador: its effects on the present and future of the economy 2008-2018”. It was prepared observing the evolution of the figures of income and expenses of the non-financial central government; figures published by the Central Bank of Ecuador and the Ministry of Finance, as well as by the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, among other public and private entities. Its objective is to observe the process of indebtedness of the central government, which begins to become significant since 2011; deeply influencing the financial structure of the national government, limiting its operation as an auditor in the aggregate demand of the country; thus adding to the deepening of a crisis that extends into the future; as an effect of aggressive and little debt cease. It is necessary to mention that in 2017 the country exceeded the limit of indebtedness legally established, due to the unsustainable pace of state intervention in the economy, sustained by a growth in spending and public investment, growth given to a a faster pace than that shown by PIB, as well as exports, whose main driver was an increase in international oil prices, unprecedented, not only because of the levels reached but also because of the length of time it lasted such situation. It is based on the correlational analysis of the evolution of the most significant accounts that encompass the general state budget, as well as the determinants of its structure and balance
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GASTO PÚBLICO, DEUDA PÚBLICA, INVERSIONES PÚBLICAS, CRISIS ESTRUCTURAL