Déficit presupuestario, el incremento de la deuda y su efecto en el crecimiento y desarrollo económico de Ecuador, período 2015-2019
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2019-03
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Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Universidad de Guayaquil
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Ecuador, al ser un país dolarizado tiene una limitada capacidad proporcional de política monetaria lo cual conlleva a que se utilice otra herramienta como la política fiscal para hacerle frente a los diferentes shocks en el ciclo económico. De acuerdo al enfoque Keynesiano con respecto a incrementar el gasto público para generar mayor Demanda Agregada, no se ha ejecutado de manera ordenada sino más bien de manera perturbadora que contrarresta la aplicación de política fiscal expansiva. La mala disciplina, políticas económicas parcializadas, medidas populistas aplicadas, obras con sobreprecios, es decir, demasía en gastos corrientes durante el gobierno anterior y el vigente, han llevado al país a recurrir a créditos y préstamos a instituciones financieras internacionales como: Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), a la República Popular de China para cubrir los continuos déficits que han sobrepasado el nivel permitido de la deuda sobre el PIB. Este desordenado incremento del gasto público nos ha dirigido a que, en la actualidad, tengamos que disciplinarnos en cuanto al manejo del Presupuesto General del Estado. Según las recomendaciones del FMI tenemos que responder a estos gastos de manera, más ordenada y disciplinada, cabe preguntarse ¿Cómo?, subiendo impuestos y bajando gasto público? ¿Es decir, aplicando políticas pro cíclicas? Lo que obtendremos como resultado será: aumento de desempleo y a esto corresponderá ya la toma de decisiones netamente políticas lo cual afectará directamente el crecimiento y por ende el desarrollo económico del Ecuador.
Ecuador, being a dollarized country, has a limited proportional monetary policy capacity, which implies using another tool such as fiscal policy to face the different shocks in the economic cycle. According to the Keynesian approach with regard to increasing public spending to generate Mayor Aggregate Demand, it has not been executed in an orderly manner but rather in a disturbing manner that counteracts the application of expansive fiscal policy. Bad discipline, biased economic policies, applied populist measures, overpriced works, that is, too much in current expenses during the previous and current government, have led the country to resort to credits and loans to international financial institutions such as: International Monetary Fund (IMF), a People's Republic of China to cover the continuing deficits that have exceeded the allowed level of debt over GDP. This disorderly increase in public spending has led us to, at present, have to discipline ourselves regarding the management of the General State Budget. According to the recommendations of the IMF, we have to respond to these expenses in a more orderly and disciplined way, it is worth asking how, raising taxes and lowering public spending? That is, applying procyclical policies? What we will obtain as a result will be: increase in unemployment and this will correspond to the taking of purely political decisions which will directly affect the growth and economic development of Ecuador
Ecuador, being a dollarized country, has a limited proportional monetary policy capacity, which implies using another tool such as fiscal policy to face the different shocks in the economic cycle. According to the Keynesian approach with regard to increasing public spending to generate Mayor Aggregate Demand, it has not been executed in an orderly manner but rather in a disturbing manner that counteracts the application of expansive fiscal policy. Bad discipline, biased economic policies, applied populist measures, overpriced works, that is, too much in current expenses during the previous and current government, have led the country to resort to credits and loans to international financial institutions such as: International Monetary Fund (IMF), a People's Republic of China to cover the continuing deficits that have exceeded the allowed level of debt over GDP. This disorderly increase in public spending has led us to, at present, have to discipline ourselves regarding the management of the General State Budget. According to the recommendations of the IMF, we have to respond to these expenses in a more orderly and disciplined way, it is worth asking how, raising taxes and lowering public spending? That is, applying procyclical policies? What we will obtain as a result will be: increase in unemployment and this will correspond to the taking of purely political decisions which will directly affect the growth and economic development of Ecuador
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DÉFICIT FISCAL, DEUDA PÚBLICA, POLÍTICA FISCAL, DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO