Empleo, población y pobreza: Perspectivas de la economía ecuatoriana
Fecha
2021-04
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Universidad de Guayaquil. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Resumen
En base a datos proyectados adaptados de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), realizados sobre Ecuador a partir de 1950, y con un horizonte hasta el año 2100 revisamos las repercusiones de los cambios poblacionales en la estructura de la composición aportativa de la Población Económicamente Activa, respecto a la previsión social y la solidaridad intergeneracional. Se entrevé la desaceleración del crecimiento poblacional a partir de 1970 acompañado de un repunte de la esperanza de vida al nacer, la reducción de la mortalidad infantil, la disminución sistemática de la tasa de natalidad, así como procesos migratorios internos y externos. Se refiere al peso social que esto conllevará en el largo plazo si la tendencia se mantiene; crearíamos un escenario catastrófico en donde dos asalariados deberán mantener con sus aportaciones a 4 jubilados. Analizamos los cambios en la distribución etaria, conforme al envejecimiento poblacional, un cambio de paradigma económico y social es necesario; el desequilibrio entre la tasa de dependencia de la población productiva y no productiva trastoca la ventana demográfica en el largo plazo. Se aplicó un plan de acción para contrarrestar los efectos de la escasez de la PEA en pleno empleo en relación con la maduración de la Población económicamente inactiva (PEI) en miras hacia el año 2065.
Based on projected data adapted from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), carried out on Ecuador from 1950, and with a horizon until the year 2100, we review the repercussions of population changes on the structure of the contributory composition of the Economically Active Population, regarding social security and intergenerational solidarity. A slowdown in population growth can be seen since 1970, accompanied by a rebound in life expectancy at birth, a reduction in infant mortality, a systematic decrease in the birth rate, as well as internal and external migration processes. It refers to the social weight that this will carry in the long term if the trend continues; we would create a catastrophic scenario in which two wage earners will have to support four retirees with their contributions. We analyze the changes in the age distribution, according to the population aging, a change of economic and social paradigm is necessary; the imbalance between the dependency ratio of the productive and non-productive population upsets the demographic window in the long term. An action plan was implemented to counteract the effects of the shortage of the EAP in full employment in relation to the maturation of the Economically Inactive Population (PEI) towards the year 2065.
Based on projected data adapted from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), carried out on Ecuador from 1950, and with a horizon until the year 2100, we review the repercussions of population changes on the structure of the contributory composition of the Economically Active Population, regarding social security and intergenerational solidarity. A slowdown in population growth can be seen since 1970, accompanied by a rebound in life expectancy at birth, a reduction in infant mortality, a systematic decrease in the birth rate, as well as internal and external migration processes. It refers to the social weight that this will carry in the long term if the trend continues; we would create a catastrophic scenario in which two wage earners will have to support four retirees with their contributions. We analyze the changes in the age distribution, according to the population aging, a change of economic and social paradigm is necessary; the imbalance between the dependency ratio of the productive and non-productive population upsets the demographic window in the long term. An action plan was implemented to counteract the effects of the shortage of the EAP in full employment in relation to the maturation of the Economically Inactive Population (PEI) towards the year 2065.
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Palabras clave
PLANIFICACIÓN, PRECARIEDAD, DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO, POLÍTICA SOCIAL