Análisis comparativo de los subsidio de los combustibles en época de bonanza y crisis petrolera en el Ecuador, período 2011-2018
Fecha
2019-10-15
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Universidad de Guayaquil. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Resumen
El objetivo general de esta investigación fue analizar el comportamiento del subsidio a los combustibles en época de auge y crisis petrolera durante el periodo 2011-2018. La investigación tuvo un enfoque cuantitativo, documental y analítico. Del análisis se puede concluir que, el subsidio a los combustibles disminuyó principalmente por la caída del precio del petróleo desde el 2016, sin dejar de desmerecer el ajuste en política de subsidio al que fue sometido al sector industrial, comercial y automotriz en los últimos años. El subsidio a los combustibles llego a representar entre el 5% y 14% del PGE y en promedio el 3% del PIB, durante el 2011-2018. También el subsidio estimado para los combustibles llegó a ser mayor a lo registrado en el PGE e incluso siendo mayor que lo invertido en educación, salud y vivienda. Lo que demuestra el alto costo de oportunidad que representa para la sociedad, el gobierno y el medio ambiente. Los hogares de ingresos altos (decil 8, 9 y 10) llegan a concentrar el 72% (urbano) y 62% (rural) del gasto en consumo de combustibles en el Ecuador. Su posible focalización requiere de un estudio técnico y medidas compensatorias previas que amortigüen los efectos en los hogares más pobres.
The general objective of this research was to analyze the behavior of the fuel subsidy during the boom and oil crisis during the period 2011-2018. The research had a quantitative, documentary and analytical approach. From the analysis, it can be concluded that the fuel subsidy decreased mainly due to the fall in the price of oil since 2016, while continuing to detract from the adjustment in the subsidy policy to which it was subjected to the industrial, commercial and automotive sector in recent years. . The fuel subsidy came to represent between 5% and 14% of PGE and on average 3% PIB, during 2011-2018. Also the estimated subsidy for fuels becomes greater than what is registered in the PGE and even being greater than that invested in education, health and housing. Which demonstrates the high opportunity cost it represents for society, government and the environment. High-income households (decile 8, 9 and 10) account for 72% (urban) and 62% (rural) of fuel consumption expenditure in Ecuador. Its possible focus requires a technical study and previous compensatory measures that cushion the effects on the poorest households
The general objective of this research was to analyze the behavior of the fuel subsidy during the boom and oil crisis during the period 2011-2018. The research had a quantitative, documentary and analytical approach. From the analysis, it can be concluded that the fuel subsidy decreased mainly due to the fall in the price of oil since 2016, while continuing to detract from the adjustment in the subsidy policy to which it was subjected to the industrial, commercial and automotive sector in recent years. . The fuel subsidy came to represent between 5% and 14% of PGE and on average 3% PIB, during 2011-2018. Also the estimated subsidy for fuels becomes greater than what is registered in the PGE and even being greater than that invested in education, health and housing. Which demonstrates the high opportunity cost it represents for society, government and the environment. High-income households (decile 8, 9 and 10) account for 72% (urban) and 62% (rural) of fuel consumption expenditure in Ecuador. Its possible focus requires a technical study and previous compensatory measures that cushion the effects on the poorest households
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SUBSIDIO A LOS COMBUSTIBLES, DÉFICIT FISCAL, COSTO DE OPORTUNIDAD Y BIENESTAR SOCIAL, PGE